So I went to Vegas, and came back with more money than I left with. Go me. Still, it doesn’t change the fact that I really hated the Chiefs and the Colts last Sunday afternoon.
I also realized that I’m now officially doing this for entertainment value only. However, I would like to thank the NFL for providing me with what looks like on paper to be the easiest week in the world to make bets. I mean, Tampa Bay is a mortal lock for my three-team parlay, for crying out loud. What gives? Throw me a bone here, people. Anyway, my current state of mind is a very tired one, but I’ll stay awake long enough to pick, so you can select the opposite of what I pick, and you’ll probably do better than me.
Sorry if the banter isn’t livelier, but I fell asleep about 38 times while trying to write the last paragraph. Anyway, here it goes.
St. Louis at Carolina (-7)
Pick: Carolina
The wheels are nowhere to be found on the Rams’ bandwagon, much like the fans that jumped aboard after they started out with a 4-1 record. That is, the people that actually noticed their 4-1 record at the season’s outset. Honestly, that was one of the quietest 4-1 records I can recall, and its level of hush was only unrivaled by the recent four game losing streak the Rams are currently suffering through. St. Louis is sliding right out of playoff contention, which is a good thing for the Panthers, who need this win to keep up with their rivals in the NFC South.
New England (-5.5) at Green Bay
Pick: New England
No way Belichik loses three in a row. As a bonus, this game should quiet those “Brett Favre could play until he’s 80 if he wanted to” claims that have been made in the wake of last week’s Packer victory against Minnesota.
Atlanta at Baltimore (-4)
Pick: Baltimore
Now that we’re sure once again that Michael Vick isn’t as good as the hype machine makes him out to be (at least for the next couple of weeks), do you really think he stands a chance to take care of business on the road against the Ravens? While you’re pondering that, here are some more riddles: The Falcons racked up a million yards rushing for the first three weeks of the season. Why then, have they abandoned that strategy and try to become a passing team recently? How do you average 198 yards on the ground and only have 6 rushing touchdowns? If Barry Switzer coached this team, how many weeks in until they break out the wishbone? When will Jim Mora figure out that his quarterback should not be handled like other quarterbacks? These are the some of the reasons why I’ve been seriously tempted to pick up a used copy of EA Sports’ “NFL Head Coach” game.
Oakland at Kansas City (-9.5)
Pick: Oakland
Whenever anyone talks about the Raiders, it’s always the same angle: Their offense is awful; the offensive coordinator ran a bed and breakfast last year; Randy Moss doesn’t care; Andrew Walter may be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. While all those are true statements, nobody ever seems to mention that Oakland’s defense is pretty solid. Okay, so they’re 26th against the run. But they are 3rd against the pass. I’m thinking you could win a whole lot of bar bets with that tidbit of info. Now, keep in mind that this is Trent Green’s first game back from being knocked so far into the future, he hung out with Hiro Nakamura in New York City (I’m telling you, you need to watch “Heroes” if you aren’t into it already). I’ll concede Larry Johnson getting a 100 yard game here, but having a recently indisposed quarterback give ten against such a good pass defense seems fishy.
Buffalo at Houston (-2.5)
Pick: Houston
It essentially comes down to who you trust more; J. P. Losman on the road, or David Carr at home. Right now, I have to back Carr and the Texans, who have the same record as the defending Super Bowl champions as well as the one team (Miami) a lot of people picked to go to this Super Bowl, proving once again that when it comes to predicting NFL football, nobody really knows what they are doing.
Minnesota at Miami (-3.5)
Pick: Miami
The Dolphins are finally starting to play like everyone thought they would. You know, when people thought they were Super Bowl material. Too bad they’re not. But right now, they look better than the Vikings, who look like they could have used a sex cruise during their bye week.
Cincinnati at New Orleans (-3.5)
Pick: New Orleans
Kudos for Cincinnati for being part of the greatest NFL game of the year last week; no other game is going to come close to that doozy against the Chargers this year. Well, unless the Super Bowl goes into overtime with both teams tied at 41. However, the only thing that plays on a defense’s collective mind other than blowing a big lead is giving up a bunch of points in a short period of time. Last week, the Bengals blew a 21 point lead and surrendered 42 second half points to the Chargers. That’s gotta wreck a defensive player’s psyche for the next week, and it’s only going to be magnified as they go into a still jubilant Superdome crowd to play a Saints team that lost a tough game themselves. This game may spell the death knell for both the Bengals playoff hopes and my pre-season Super Bowl prediction.
Chicago (-7) at New York Jets
Pick: New York Jets
The Bears and the Jets both had something to prove last week, and both were successful. Chicago demonstrated that their game against Miami was a fluke, and the Jets showed that they aren’t necessarily the “good bad” team people are making them out to be. However, according to the recent pattern, it’s time for Evil Rex Grossman to show up and have one of those games that makes one or two columnists openly wonder what Kyle Orton thinks about all of this stuff. The Bears will pull it out, but they won’t cover.
Tennessee at Philadelphia (-13)
Pick: Philadelphia
With the exception of their supremely weird loss at Tampa Bay when defeat came because of a 62 yard field goal, the Eagles have absolutely crushed bad teams this year. So far, they’ve put up at least two-touchdown victories against Houston, San Francisco, Green Bay, Dallas, and Washington. As of right now, it’s pretty safe to say that the Titans are a bad team. The only scary thing about this game is that Philly plays Indy next Sunday night, so this could be a “look ahead” game.
Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
Just because Cleveland pretty much covers every week. They’ll probably find a way to lose this game by 3 ¼.
Washington at Tampa Bay (-3)
Pick: Tampa Bay
This week, the Redskins start a rookie quarterback on the road, and he gets to go to battle without their best offensive weapon. No offense to T.J. Duckett, but his presence in the backfield will not help this sorry bunch. By the way, are we sure that these two teams were in the playoffs last season? We weren’t mass hallucinating, were we?
Detroit at Arizona (-2)
Pick: Detroit
Why not? If the Cardinals can screw up on Pat Tillman day, is it really that far fetched that they won’t be able to beat the Lions? On a serious note, if you live in Arizona, this is the only option for afternoon football unless you have the NFL Sunday Ticket package. Because of the NFL’s ridiculous, nonsensical rule that forbids a rival network to broadcast a game in a city when the home team is playing locally, the entire state is getting screwed out of being able to watch the Colts-Cowboys game. I apologize. May I suggest going out for a walk, or reading a book, or playing with your kids instead. All three of those options are much better than watching this hunk of crap.
Seattle (-4.5) at San Francisco
Pick: Seattle
Here’s what I wrote about this game on Thursday, when I read that the line was at Even.
Did I miss something here? Didn’t the Seahawks beat the Rams missing the same people they are missing this week? Did a priest come by and perform an exorcism on Darrell Jackson, relieving him of the spirit that caused him to catch balls? Did the defense get exported to Norway? (In case you haven’t figured it out, this line makes no sense.)
Suddenly, the line shot up to 4.5, which really does prove the theory that 4.5 points is the Vegas equivalent of “we have no idea, either.” I mean, this game was inexplicably at Even for most of the week. It was almost like the oddsmakers were taking a multiple choice test, got stumped on a question and passed it to finish the rest of the test, came back to the question after everything else was completed, and freaked out as the school bell rang after staring at the question for fifteen minutes. In a panic, they just filled in “c” and moved on (For some reason, the old adage goes “if you don’t know the answer to a multiple choice test, pick “c,” because that’s the correct choice the majority of the time. I don’t know how valid that is, but I did graduate from college.) Anyway, I’m still picking Seattle.
Indianapolis at Dallas (-1)
Pick: Indianapolis
Yes, Indy looked like crap last week. And Tony Romo has already matured as an NFL quarterback – heck, he’s one botched field goal away from being 3-0 as a starter. That being said, the Colts need to destroy a team to show all their pundits that they are not bored with the season, and the Cowboys look like the perfect patsy to shred this weekend.
San Diego at Denver (-3)
Pick: Denver
Repeat after me: LaDanian Tomlinson cannot run in Denver. He never has, and he won’t this time (unless, of course, he does, in which case, ignore my advice). Also, the Chargers are something like 8 and 173 in Denver since the start of the old AFL. Denver’s defense will take care of business defensively, and the all the offense has to do is not suck, which Jake Plummer is capable of in small doses. Very small doses. I had some more relevant things to say about this matchup, but I’m ready to fall asleep right about now. Sorry.
New York Giants (-3.5) at Jacksonville
Pick: New York Giants
All you need to know about the Jags this season: The Houston Texans swept the season series between them. That, and neither quarterback looks particularly good, Matt Jones is in the running for fantasy football sleeper bust of the year (I didn’t think such a thing existed before, either), and Fred Taylor is scheduled to have his groin rip off of his body and fly into the third row of the south end zone.
Last Week (insert self-deprecating joke here)
Overall: 8-8
Three Team Parlay: 1-2
This Season
Overall: 68-69-6
Three Team Parlay: 1-9 (9-21)
This week
Three Team Parlay
Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
Indianapolis
