It’s finally happened.
Thanks to my craptacular 6-8 week last week, I’m now under .500 for the year. Yep, I had managed to blow a 24-8 start by going a sorry 36-53-6 over the past six weeks. And in the spirit of the Democrats winning back the House and the Senate, I’m going to blame somebody else for my actions (just kidding, Dems! Don’t hurt me!) In this case, my funk is clearly the by-product of NFL teams refusing to have a killer instinct. I read a stat last week that said something like close to 60% of all underdogs have beat the spread. That’s nearly three out of every five games. Seriously, what’s wrong with these teams? Can’t anyone blow away anyone else anymore? Are they so obsessed with hiding their true nature on offense or defense that they truncate the playbooks to the point where any opposing team could finish within a touchdown of them? I mean, you got teams like Denver who plays at half-mast against anyone who’s not in first place, teams like Cleveland who stalks teams for four quarters without ever getting close enough to do real damage (unless you wagered against them), and several teams like Jacksonville who look capable of going deep in the playoffs one week, and then look like an expansion team the next. I don’t know anymore, mainly because the teams of the NFL do not care about us gambling types.
And you know the worst part about this? I’m going to be in Vegas this weekend.
Yes, in less than 48 hours, I’ll be in Vegas, making a generous donation to some casino’s sports book. I’m still going to attempt a three team parlay (which is listed at the end of this post), but I do realize that, thanks to this season, I have about as much chance of getting a return on my investment as I have contracting an STD from Rosie O’Donnell. (Sorry if that made you vomit.)
Yet I’m still going to willingly do it, because I want to do it. Also, it helps that I’m a raging idiot, but we’ll discuss that later. Onward to the picks:
Cleveland at Atlanta (-8)
Pick: Cleveland
The Browns are the NFL’s version of your annoying little cousin that your mom forced you to play “Battleship” with. You want to blow him, primarily because you should blow him out. After all, he wipes his boogers on your favorite chair and finds “That’s So Raven” charming for some inexplicable reason. Yet he always manages to sink four of your boats every time, even though he called “G8” five times. Likewise, the Browns are 2-6 and have Channing Frye as their quarterback. Yet they have beat or covered the spread six straight weeks. They play just well enough to be gambler’s poison. Stay away. By the way, does anyone know why this game went from Atlanta giving 8 to ‘N/A’ on most sites Thursday? Did Kellen Winslow Jr. call himself god, or threaten to go “Gone With the Wind” on the city? I need answers. Seriously. I know that it’s probably some sort of glitch, but if this game wound up being a pick’em, there’s no way I’m picking Cleveland. In fact, I’m kind of ticked that it is most likely a glitch.
Washington at Philadelphia (-7)
Pick: Philadelphia
Philly’s coming off a bye week, and Brian Westbrook is healthier. As far as the Redskins go, keep in mind that their best players on their team last week were Terrell Owens and Mike Vanderjadt. Curious unproven pseudo-stat of the week: My buddy Dan told me that the Eagles have never beaten a team quarterbacked by Mark Brunell. Is this true? This can’t be true. After this weekend, this better not be true.
San Diego (-1) at Cincinnati
Pick: San Diego
Last week, I called the Chargers matchup against the Browns a “look ahead” game, because they had two road games against the Bengals and the Broncos. Well, if this makes sense at all, this game looks like a “reverse look ahead” game. You see, they play in Denver next week, a place where their overall record is something like 8-734 in their history (plus, Denver is the one place where LaDanian Tomlinson just can’t seem to break off a good game). Since the Bolts and the Broncos are tied for first, they need to win this game in anticipation of the real likelihood of losing in Denver. Armed with that knowledge, they’ll take care of business.
San Francisco at Detroit (-6)
Pick: San Francisco
The Lions played over their heads last week against Atlanta. So did the 49ers. So who to pick? Really, the only reason I’m going with San Francisco was completely out of spite toward Detroit for making me look like a moron by saying they were making the playoffs this year. Curse them.
Baltimore (-7) at Tennessee
Pick: Baltimore
The Ravens have proven to be one of those teams that can win games despite of their offensive attack. You know, just like every Ravens team over the past six years. It’s to the point where I’m convinced that the record breaking Vikings offense of 1998 was coordinated by Bizarro Brian Billick. Even though the defense gets to feast on Vince Young, the fact that their shaky offense is on the road makes this a dangerous spread.
Buffalo at Indianapolis (-12)
Pick: Indianapolis
No McGahee for Buffalo, no way they’re keeping this game close.
Houston at Jacksonville (-10.5)
Pick: Jacksonville
The Jags seem more comfortable with David Garrard under center. Plus, Houston still stinks. And with that, I’m picking the Jags, which will undoubtedly mean they will not cover. Use this knowledge to your advantage.
Kansas City (-1) at Miami
Pick: Kansas City
Are you kidding me? I mean, the Dolphins did beat the Bears last week, but come on! The Chiefs are 5-1 in their last six games. Damon Huard has pretty much gone Kurt Warner on poor Trent Green. Plus, let’s not underestimate that Joey Harrington is still the Dolphins’ quarterback. If the Chiefs don’t win this game, I’m walking back home from Vegas, or at least walking to the world’s biggest thermometer in Baker.
Green Bay at Minnesota (-5.5)
Pick: Minnesota
Beware about this game: That whole “Brett Favre stinks in the Metrodome” theory that everybody who had bet on the NFL at least once in the last five years knew about is kind of fraudulent, seeing as how the Pack have actually won two of the past three contests in Minny (and the one loss was only by three). That’s why I’m not touching this game this weekend. Vegas is going to have to take my money elsewhere (which they will, of course).
New York Jets at New England (-10.5)
Pick: New England
The Pats are ticked that the Colts beat them last week, and there is no way that Bill Belichik is going to allow a former assistant coach like Eric Mangini show him up by keeping him around in a close game. By the way, the following Patriots have been listed as Questionable for Sunday’s game: Tom Brady, Corey Dillon, Lawrence Maroney, Chad Jackson, Ben Watson, Mike Vrabel, Junior Seau, Tedy Bruschi, Steve Grogan, Stanley Morgan, John Hannah, Tony Eason, Julius Adams, Mosi Tatupu, Andre Tippett, Sam “Bam” Cunningham, Mike Haynes, Tony Collins, Gino Capelleti, Jim Plunkett, Mel Gibson, Samuel Adams, Thomas Paine, and Paul Revere.
Denver (-9) at Oakland
Pick: Oakland
If Cleveland is gambling poison, then Denver is gambling suicide-by-applying-three-hundred-leeches-to-your-nether-region-and-letting-nature-take-its-course. With the Chargers looming on next week’s horizon, Mike Shanahan might resort to calling the same number of plays that were available on “Tecmo Bowl.” He’ll get away with it because the Raiders aren’t moving anywhere on the Bronco D, but the game plan that he’ll hatch probably won’t be conducive to a double digit victory on the road.
Dallas (-7) at Arizona
Pick: Dallas
Who am I kidding? This game is so going to be a push. In fact, I’m going to see if there’s a casino that will let me put a couple of bucks down on such a scenario.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh (-4.5)
Pick: New Orleans
First of all, mad props to “Tuesday Morning Quarterback” columnist Gregg Easterbrook, who brilliantly created the “EA Sports Head Coach” curse and applied it to cover boy Bill Cowher. It’s either pure genius or comedy gold; I haven’t decided yet. I also haven’t decided if the Steelers are getting too much credit this week or if the Saints are getting dissed by the line. Probably a little bit of both. Whatever the case, this is the stupidest “we don’t know” 4.5 point spread of the year.
St. Louis at Seattle (-3.5)
Pick: St. Louis
The Rams had a full week to lick their wounds after getting ripped in San Diego partially in front of what used to be their home fans. Now they get to travel up to the Pacific Northwest to take on a team that they’ve owned on the road since becoming divisional foes. Plus, they don’t have to worry about Shaun Alexander or Matt Hasselbeck. Hell, if I come back on Monday with an “I switched my three team parlay up at the last minute in Vegas” story, this game will probably be the one at fault.
Chicago at New York Giants (Pick)
Pick: New York Giants
Remember when this game was supposed to kick off the stretch of games that proved whether or not the Bears were real? Good times. Then the Dolphins game happened. Not so good times. Suddenly, this game is a litmus test to see whether or not the Bears have the goods. And it’s all because Rexy picked a horrible time to become about as sexy as Joe Pesci(xy). If the Giants win this game – and they should – they will have to instantly be considered the favorites in the NFC, prompting roughly 1738 fluff pieces about a possible Manning Super Bowl between now and week 17.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-9.5)
Pick: Carolina
Why, oh why can’t this game be going on Sunday instead of Monday night, when I’ll already be home? Oh well, at least I’ll be in comfy surroundings to watch the Bruce Gradkowski in Prime Time era begin.
Last Week (The Dropping of the Other Shoe)
Overall: 6-8
Three Team Parlay: 1-2
This Season
Overall: 60-61-6
Three Team Parlay: 1-8 (8-19)
This Week
Three Team Parlay
San Diego
Kansas City
Indianapolis is going to ruin it for me
