It’s All Downhill From Here

I am doomed to fail this week.

Normally, that’s not what you’d want to see a guy say in the paragraphs right before he plows through his weekly predictions. But I went an astounding (if I do say so myself) 14-2 last week. I messed up on one game last Sunday (that stupid Falcons/Bucs game), and I stumbled on Monday night. But I got the rest of ‘em. For the whole weekend, I felt like one of those obnoxious bookies that buy up ad space on sports radio. I even dreamt about walking around town with a lead pipe and a bookie-type nickname like “The Big Ragoo,” walking up to schmoes who bet heavily on the Dolphins to cover and yelling, “WHERE’S MY MONEY?” But it’s Friday now, and Sunday’s a-comin.’ The truth is, I’m only good as the last week. My reign of super-awesomeness is about to come to a close, and honestly, I’ve been fearing the law of averages ever since I saw the opening lines come out on Monday.

I’ve also been feeling a heap of internal pressure. Make no mistake, 14-2 against the spread is a masterwork. It’s the betting equivalent of “Sgt. Pepper” or “Pulp Fiction.” Actually, more to the point, my week puts me in mind of Fleetwood Mac’s seminal “Rumors” album. You see, that album was the Mac’s second release with their most famous lineup, the one that everyone associates with as being “the band.” The whole album is chock full of songs that you routinely hear on radio today, despite the fact that terrestrial radio is nothing more than a flaming pile of crap. It’s a great record; one of those benchmark pieces of rock music that everybody who seriously calls himself a music fan should have in their collection. How did the Mac follow that landmark masterwork? They released “Tusk,” a truly insipid album in comparison to “Rumors.” Yeah, it has the title track that features the USC marching band, but that’s all it has going for it. Last week was my “Rumors,” no doubt about it (my Week 2 performance even featured a couple of lesser picks to skip over, just like those drawn-out Christine McVie songs on the Mac album). This week, I present to you my version of “Tusk.”

Chicago (-3) at Minnesota

Pick: Chicago

Both teams are undefeated. Both teams have dispatched of two teams with combined 0-4 records. However, the Vikings struggled to defeat their teams (including a Redskins team that has absolutely no offense) with a pair of last-minute field goals, while the Bears destroyed their opponents by a combined score of 60-7. While this should be the week Rex Grossman comes back down to earth, Chicago will still be able to run on the Vikes, which will be the main difference in the game.

(That said I have to wonder about anyone who has said the Vikings have come out of nowhere to go 2-0. They’ve now won 9 out of their last 11 dating back to last year, so they weren’t exactly terrible. But they’re still losing to the Bears.)

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-1.5)

Pick: Cincinnati

Let’s see…what happened the last time these two teams played? Oh, that’s right. I remember. Carson Palmer nearly got his leg severed by the Steelers’ Kimo von (I don’t know how to spell) Oelhoffen in the playoffs, an incident that has caused the bright young quarterback and former USC Trojan to hate the Steelers more than UCLA. Like I said last week, the Bengals have had things to prove in all of their games. In Week 1, it was to show the world that Palmer was regular-season ready. Last week, they proved that they could easily put away teams they were supposed to crush. This week, it’s all about Palmer showing the Steelers what (presumably) would have happened to them had he not been instantly put in the need of some Kimo von Therapy. The revenge factor is through the roof in this game, and yet Pittsburgh – a team coming off a physical Monday night road game, no less – is the favorite. It’s just odd to me.

New York Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)

Pick: New York Jets

When it comes to prognostication, there are some games that just plain suck. This is one of them. Is the Bills’ defense for real, or did Miami make them look good? Will Chad Pennington continue to play as if there is nothing wrong with his shoulder? Can Buffalo seriously hang around with J.P. Losman as their quarterback? What will the Jets do when Kevan Barlow can’t get untracked? I need aspirin. I’m going with the Jets to beat the spread, simply because this looks like your classic tooth-and nail, nondescript 17-14 game that division rivals on the same level can crank out like CBS sitcoms, which you’ll probably hear a lot about if you watch this game. Besides, Losman is due to make a key mistake that costs his team. Then again, Pennington is due to have his shoulder detach from his torso and crawl off the field under its own power. Let’s just get away from this damn game, already.

Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay

Pick: Carolina

Fun stat of the week: Panther backup running back D’Angelo Williams rushed for more yards last week (73) than the Bucs team has this season (66). This is the week where not only do the Panthers get into an offensive rhythm (which will be easy enough to do against a team that gave up over 300 yards rushing last Sunday against Atlanta), it’s also the week when guys who drafted Williams in their fantasy league look like geniuses (guys like me), because he’s going to take the starting job away from DeShaun Foster. Which is just as well, since Foster is going to eventually get injured some time this season.

Green Bay at Detroit (-7)

Pick: Detroit

There are three things going on in this game that compel me to pick the Lions. First, Roy Williams has thankfully shut his pie hole for the time being. Secondly, Brett Favre and enclosed stadiums do not mix. Finally, the Packers pass defense is a sieve, having given up close to 600 yards through the air over two games. It’s the kind of defense Mike Martz drools over.

Washington (-4) at Houston

Pick: Washington

The only reason to pick the ‘Skins is because they’re playing the Texans, who has given up 956 yards of total offense this season. It’s a good thing they drafted Mario Williams, too. Without him, they probably would have given up 957 yards. The bottom line is, if Washington can’t put up two or more touchdowns against this sorry team on Sunday, they may as well join the CFL for a few weeks. I’m sure they’d be able to move the ball against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)

Pick: Indianapolis

It’s time to give the Jags some props, especially since I threw them under the bus so unceremoniously during my season preview a few weeks ago. That defense is scary physical. They close in ball carriers at a frightening speed. They have cloaked opposing receivers once they’ve gotten past the first down markers. Is that enough props? Good, because here comes the bad news. The quarterbacks they’ve gone up against have been the always shaky Drew Bledsoe and a Ben Roethlisberger coming off an emergency appendectomy. They get to face Peyton Manning, who looks like he’s going to have another one of them 4,200 yard, 37 touchdown seasons. It’s still going to be very hard for Jacksonville to keep this game close enough to beat the spread, let alone win. I know a lot of people will point to last year’s 10-3 game in Indy as a counterargument, but even in that game, the Colts still beat them by a touchdown. And Jacksonville’s offense isn’t exactly world-class.

Tennessee at Miami (-11)

Pick: Miami

First thing’s first: I never, ever doubted for once that the Dolphins would lose to the Titans. There’s no way they’ll do that. That being said, this game has eaten at me all week long because of that 11 point spread. Does any 0-2 team deserve to be giving a touchdown and a half? Why does Duante Culpepper have to be involved? The Titans are bad, but isn’t Miami awful in their own special way? It’s enough to make you take up smoking. But after several minutes of thought and research, I concluded that there were only two teams in the NFL that could warrant Miami giving 11, and they happen to play one of them this week. (Take a wild guess what the other team is.) Surprisingly, it’s an easy pick when you consider all the stuff going on in this game: Tennessee is still sticking with Kerry Collins and his 26.9 quarterback rating this week; only Houston has given up more yards than the Titans; and the Dolphins don’t have a week and a half between games like they did in Week 2. Let’s just say that if Miami doesn’t score at least 24 points on this pathetic defense, I’m going to start endorsing those crazy chants for Joey Harrington.

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland

Pick: Baltimore

It will be fun to see what the Ravens can do against an actual good team one day. For now, they get to feast on a Browns team that has no running game, is powerless against the run, and is suffering from all kinds of internal strife. In other words, they are what the Raiders would look like if the Raiders had a mediocre passing attack.

St. Louis at Arizona (-4.5)

Pick: Arizona

Since the Rams true colors on defense were revealed last week in a loss against the 49ers (they allowed 360 total yards to a team led by Alex Smith), and the game is being held in the Phoenix area, I’m taking the Cardinals. The whole “picking the home team” route may sound cheesy at first, but in reality, it’s a solid bet, because the Cardinals look like one of those teams that will be completely dominant at home (partially due to getting great energy from the crowd as they pack in the new stadium), but they’ll also be totally atrocious on the road, as witnessed in Seattle. So this is a rock solid pick. If I’m wrong, remember that this week is my equivalent of “Tusk.”

Philadelphia (-6) at San Francisco

Pick: Philadelphia

After such a crushing defeat at the hands of the Giants, the Eagles could either crawl into a hole for the next several weeks and die a slow, miserable death from the residual shock, or they could learn from it, get mad as all get out, and come back more resilient the following week, much to the chagrin of their opponent. Donovan McNabb will not let the first scenario happen on his watch. Besides, the Eagles for all intents and purposes kicked the crap out of the Giants last week. I mean, McNabb played outrageously well during the game (350 yards), and they sacked Eli Manning eight times in that game. Unfortunately for them, they were involved in a game that just got way too weird for them to win. The Eagles (and especially their defense) can’t be all that happy about that, and this week they get to take their aggressions out on Alex Smith. It’s not going to be pretty.

New York Giants at Seattle (-3.5)

Pick: New York Giants

There’s a clip floating around somewhere regarding last year’s game that has Jeremy Shockey dancing around and taunting the fans at Seahawk Stadium all the way up until he sees Jay Feely miss what would have been the game-winning field goal. Then he just stands there with the same kind of look that Ashlee Simpson had when SNL and everyone else found out she was lip-synching. Seriously, go on YouTube right now and look for it. It’s a beautiful thing. Anyway, I bring that clip up as a reminder that the Giants played the Seahawks tough last year in Seattle, and it resulted in one of the most entertaining games of the year, especially since the cameras caught Shockey being a total moron. This year, the Giants are seven days removed from pulling off the highly improbable, and they are playing a team that they know they should have beaten last year. Plus, this is the first game since Eli Manning officially jumped up a level on the quarterback pyramid. That’s a pretty deadly combination for Seattle, who will probably try to get Deion Branch involved in the offense a little too much for their own good.

Denver at New England (-7)

Pick: New England

This game could also be known as Revenge Game Jr. Denver whipped New England in the playoffs, with the help of some legitimately blown calls, most famously the Champ Bailey interception. Not to sound like SportsCenter or anything, but there was no way Bailey had possession of the football at the end of his interception return. The Patriots are too smart to not remember what happened in Colorado that night, and they are determined to show everyone on national television that the playoff game was a huge fluke. How determined, you ask? Both Bill Belichik and Tom Brady have started up on that whole “Denver is a good team, they deserve a whole lot of credit” crap, which is their definitive sign that they are secretly planning on whipping the tar out of them. It’s just a variation of their whole “we don’t get any respect” routine, and it always seems to work. You’d think that the rest of the league would start ignoring New England’s pandering. At this point, it’s like a pitcher tipping his pitches, yet the other team is still striking out. It’s pretty incredible, actually.

Atlanta (-3.5) at New Orleans

Pick: New Orleans

Are you serious? Atlanta is favored in this game? Here’s what the Saints bring to the table on Monday night:
-It’s the first game in the Superdome since Hurricane Katrina.
-It’s the first Saints game in New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina.
-It’s the first NFL game in a city that was inexplicably in danger of losing their franchise because their evil owner contemplated using Hurricane Katrina as a ploy to get the NFL to allow him to move the club.
-It’s the first NFL game in the Superdome for Reggie Bush, who will be playing in front of an extremely grateful crowd.
-The game is going to have the atmosphere of a mini-Super Bowl. I mean, U2 is playing before the contest, for crying out loud. The last time the NFL and U2 joined forces was the Super Bowl after 9/11, making the band the NFL’s official pop-culture encouraging goodwill vehicle.
-The Saints are as every much a symbol of New Orleans as jazz, beignets, and the beloved smell of urine on Bourbon Street. The city needs the Saints in order to feel fully functional.

Here’s what the Falcons are bringing to the table:

-The re-signed ex-Saint Morten Andersen.

Okay, so there’s a lot more that the Falcons have going for them, like a seemingly unstoppable running game. However, if the Saints don’t win this game, that will pretty much prove that the fundamentalist whackos are right about God hating the city. That can’t happen, can it? Then again, these are the Saints, the original paper bag over the head franchise. If there’s any team that can blow all the momentum, it’s them. (Translation: They have all this going for them, and I still don’t have the stones to pick them in my Survivor league.)

Last Week (back when I ruled)

Overall: 14-2
Three Team Parlay: 3-0
Survivor League Pick: Ravens (still alive)

This Season:

Overall: 24-8
Three Team Parlay: 1-1 (4-2)
Survivor League teams used: Phi, Bal

This week:

Three team parlay:

Baltimore
Philadelphia
New England

Survivor League Pick:

Miami